Google and the Internet of Things 2017 Update

As a follow up to my first article on Googlethe internet and technology juggernaut whose innovations in search and advertising have made their brand one of the most recognized in the world, this update will focus on the leverage such dominance brings. Google core products, including Search, YouTube, Android, Google Play, Maps, Chrome, and Gmail, each have over one billion active users monthly. 2016 Net Income totaled $19.5 billion, up 19% to 2015, driven on 22% growth in Google Properties revenue, formerly referred to as Google Websites revenue. Gross profit margin was 61%, down slightly (1%) to 2015. Net profit margin remained steady at 22%, and the effective tax rate was 19%.

Taking a closer look at Google Properties revenue, 2016 revenue totaled $63.8 billion, comprising 71% of total Google revenue. While Google doesn’t currently disclose the product breakout in their public filings, there’s enough public information available to estimate the pieces. Analysts Eric Sheridan at UBS and Justin Post at Merrill Lynch both estimated You Tube revenue to be about $12 billion in 2016. I estimated Google Search revenue at $50.5 billion and Android at $1.3 billion. Google dominates the global search engine market, maintaining a near 90% worldwide market share since 2010, although they have lost a little ground recently, currently holding a little under 87%. Android revenues, driven on mobile ad revenue, experienced strong growth in 2016, with my estimate reflecting a 60% increase to 2015.

While clearly Search revenue dominates the Google revenue story, investors are now paying closer attention to YouTube as analysts have become very bullish on this product segment and project revenues to reach $20 billion in 2018, and $27 billion by 2020.   Merrill Lynch now believes YouTube may reach a $90 billion valuation on a standalone basis. YouTube’s $90 million valuation.

The P&L success of the YouTube operating model finds its roots in the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) of 1998, legislation enacted before user generated content sites like YouTube existed, and before the significant transformation in digital technology we enjoy today. Google’s YouTube takes full advantage of the DMCA “Safe Harbor” provision that provides full protection from infringement liability for content flowing through their lines. To qualify, Google must meet certain guidelines, including promptly blocking access to newly discovered infringing material, and terminating repeat infringers. However, the responsibility for surveillance and enforcement lies with the musical creator, not with Google. Most in the music industry view YouTube as a huge problem, a large global firm making billions of dollars, at the expense of the little songwriter who is struggling to survive.

Before we get into the latest key developments surrounding “Safe Harbor” protections for large powerful platforms, it’s important to note a recent operational change at Google’s YouTube, that also has a disparate impact on the songwriter with less than 10,000 YouTube views, and more importantly, that forces program loyalty provisions for all of their content providers. In 2013, Jack Conte, a struggling musician on YouTube, founded Patreon, a platform where musicians can post their content and find backers to support them. Content creators are projected to earn $150 million on the crowd funding platform in 2017.  Digital Music News reports that in order for musical creators to add external links to their videos, to sites like Patreon and Amazon, they are now required to join YouTube’s Partner Program, which carries an additional requirement, of a minimum of 10,000 views. It’s important to note that most content creators on YouTube depend on external links to earn money, that Google’s YouTube controls 60% of all streaming audio business in the world, and that it pays for only 11% of total streaming audio revenue artists receive. 1

Wait, there’s more. Are you familiar with Senate Resolution 1693 Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act of 2017? This bills amends the federal criminal code to include those who benefit from “participating in a venture” that supports child sex trafficking, to be subject to the same consequences as those who are directly engaged in this criminal activity. To achieve the intended goal, the bill seeks to amend the Communications Act of 1934, specifically Section 230 on Safe Harbors, to remove the protections communication and content delivery companies currently receive, should a sex trafficker use their company’s internet platform to advance their cause. Since introduction, the bill has received wide bipartisan support and additional sponsors, as well as support from companies like 21st Century Fox and Oracle. However, pro-internet groups like the Center For Democracy and Technology and the Electronic Frontier Foundation, powerful organizations well funded and with close ties to Google and similar minded Silicon Valley internet firms, are against this legislation. They are concerned that the removal of the Safe Harbor provision, as it relates to child sex trafficking, will set a precedent and open the door for further erosion of Safe Harbor provisions that could ultimately impact the organizations whose causes they are advancing. Background on the Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act.

Huge thank you to the Association for Independent Music Publishers (AIMP) for a very informative panel discussion on these important matters, featuring Jonathan Taplin, Director Emeritus of the Annenberg Innovation Lab at USC Annenberg School for Communication, member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, who also sits on the California Broadband Task Force. I highly recommend Mr. Taplin’s book “Move Fast and Break Things” How Facebook, Google, and Amazon cornered culture and under-mined democracy.

I’ll leave you with this epic performance from my beloved rockers, incredibly on point some 25 years ago, and always forward thinking…

“.. You can’t trust freedom when it’s not in your hands, when everybody’s fighting for the promised land.. I don’t need your civil war.  It feeds the rich, but it buries the poor..”

Guns N’ Roses “Civil War” Live Paris 1992

Enjoy!

1 Jonathan Taplin, “Move Fast and Break Things”

Feature Image Credit: Cynthia Drew with Rock&Roll soul sister Tammy Michaud on the GN’R stage Labor Day Weekend 2017, at The Gorge Amphitheater in the stunning Wenatchee Valley, just over the mountains from Seattle, Washington.

Google and the Internet of Things

Continuing in my series on mobile and internet technology, this month I take a look at Google, the internet and technology juggernaut that generated $75 billion in gross revenue and $16.3 billion in net income in 2015. Net profit margin was 22% and the effective tax rate was 17%. The stock closed 2016 at $793.02 with a market capitalization of $554 billion. Google takes pride in not being a conventional company. Their innovations in search and advertising have made their brand one of the most recognized in the world. Their core products, including Search, YouTube, the Android mobile operating system, the Google Play app store, Maps, the Chrome internet browser, and Gmail each have over one billion monthly active users. Google believes they are just beginning to scratch the surface. In 2015 they created a new public holding company named Alphabet, a collection of businesses, the largest of which is Google, as well as new businesses Verily, Calico, X, Nest, GV, Google Capital, and Access/Google Fiber.

 google-pl

Focusing on 2015 Google Websites revenue of $52.4 billion, at 70.2% of total segment revenue, up from 67.4% in 2013, the firm’s SEC filings describe this segment as advertising revenue on Search, Google Play, YouTube, Gmail, Finance, and Maps. While Google does not publicly report earnings by product line, Search, YouTube, the Android mobile operating system, including the Google Play app store, are the key product lines in this segment. For 2015, researching multiple sources of earnings estimates, including these two by eMarketer and ForbesI estimate the breakout to be:

google-websites-new

 

I should note that there is considerable debate about how much Android contributes to Google’s bottom line, with annual revenue estimates ranging from $300-$500 million to $1 billionto as much as $31 billion, as recently claimed by Oracle in their lawsuit against Google.  Oracle is suing Google for copyright infringement, for using its Java software to develop Android, without paying for it. Five years of litigation continues following a January 2016 U.S. Supreme Court ruling where Google lost in their effort to derail the case. Any settlement figure would be a function of this estimate, where it may be appropriate to include “Search” ad revenue. We’ll leave that decision to the copyright finance valuation team assigned to the case.

In the Search space, competition is fierce. Competitor Microsoft’s Bing market share continues to increase, at 22.3 percent in October 2016, compared to Yahoo at 11.7 percent, with Google still leading the pack at 63.6 percent. Considering that Bing was first introduced in May 2009, and that it also largely powers Yahoo Search, Microsoft is certainly gaining ground. Bing finally catching up to Google. U.S. Search Engine market share.

The biggest advantage Bing has over Google right now is their paid advertising platform. Bing is closing the gap by offering more niche advertising, and at lower prices. New functionality in the Ad Preview and Diagnostics tool is starting to turn Bing Ads into a major player in the paid search advertising world. It’s likely that more marketers will start using Bing Ads as an online advertising platform for budgetary reasons alone. If combined with more design, functionality, and visibility changes, Bing could start closing that gap between them and Google faster than ever before. Another increasing threat is in Europe where the European Commission has instituted new personal privacy provisions. Further, many European countries have launched legislative attacks on Google’s ambiguous privacy policy. This presents a significant opportunity for Bing to rise up and force Google out of Europe.

In the smartphone space, Google’s Android operating system is the hands down leader at 86.2% market share, compared to Apple’s iOS at 12.9%, according to the latest Gartner research.  Android, which was launched in 2008, makes money for Google in two ways, advertisements supplied by Google shown on Android phones, and revenue Google takes from its mobile app store, Google Play, which some technology analysts predict will soon overtake the Apple app store. Google Play to overtake Apple App store.

Also, in 2013, Starbucks dropped AT&T to partner with Google to provide an improved WIFI experience to their customers. Google will also work with Starbucks at developing the next iteration of the Starbucks Digital Network to provide increased content. Interestingly, I should note that following a recent flurry of iOS 9.3 updates, the functioning of my Apple iPhone 6 has declined dramatically when connected to Starbucks WiFi. Starbucks Google partnership.

The final point of analysis, and of course near and dear to my heart, is the subject of music video and Google’s YouTube, which was estimated to gross $5.6 billion in revenue, and net $1.6 billion or 28.6% margin to Google’s bottom line in 2013. Advertising Age on Google’s YouTube.  In the U.S. they were expected to net $1.08 billion, just 6.3% of all of Google’s net U.S. ad revenues for the year, but 20.5% of the $4.15 billion U.S. online video ad market.  Forbes contributor Tim Worstall on Google’s YouTube.  We can only rely on estimates as I noted earlier, in that Google does not publicly disclose financial results by product line. My 2015 gross revenue estimate for YouTube is $7.5 billion.

The P&L success of the YouTube advertising revenue model finds its roots in the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) of 1998, the most important amendment to the U.S. Copyright Act of 1976; legislation enacted before user generated content sites like YouTube even existed, and clearly long before the significant transformation in digital technology we enjoy today. Google’s YouTube takes full advantage of the DMCA “Safe Harbor” provision that provides full protection from infringement liability for content flowing through their lines. To qualify, Google must meet certain guidelines, including promptly blocking access to newly discovered infringing material, and terminating repeat infringers. However, the responsibility for surveillance and enforcement lies with the Musical Artist, not with Google. Once a user uploads a video from a concert for example, probably without a license from the Artist, a global marketplace with at least five billion active users monthly, is instantly able to access this creative work for free. While Google’s YouTube is clearly not the only source of music piracy, the sheer global volume of the user base and ease of access to musical content, certainly makes it a major player. In the U.S., music piracy is a serious problem and results in the loss of $12.5 billion in total output annually, another $2.5 billion to downstream industries, the loss of 71,000 jobs, and $422 million less in U.S. tax revenue. The RIAA on the true cost of music piracy.

Further, Google’s YouTube is permitted to operate under an advertising revenue model, markedly different from a royalty based revenue model that has long been the standard in the recorded music industry. Musical Artists are in the fight of their lives! Multiple advocacy groups, including The Grammy Creators Alliance, The Future of Music Coalition, and the Berklee College of Music’s Rethink Music Initiative to name a few, are waging in earnest, a campaign for U.S. Copyright reform that reflects today’s music delivery system, that will protect Artists’ compensation, and that will ensure an enduring legacy of creative expression for years to come.

Looking abroad, in September 2016 the European Commission proposed modernizing copyright rules to help European culture flourish. The EU has adopted the Digital Single Market Strategy to offer better choice and access to content online and across borders, and to promote a fairer and sustainable marketplace for the creative industry. EU Press Release.

The winds are shifting and the message is becoming more clear. As the global recorded music industry is gaining legislative ground, particularly in the EU, and as consumer and music industry awareness and activism are on the rise, and as the Google YouTube development team has begun to respond with technology advances like Audible Magic and ContentID, expect to see transformative change in digital copyright law and protections, that will ultimately put some pressure on the YouTube profit model. Further, here is an interesting point if you’re really paying attention.  Today’s technology graduates are more interested in the altruistic goals that silicon valley offers, like working on products that will change the world, as opposed to Wall Street, where attractive compensation packages apparently don’t carry the same level of gravitas. Talent wars: Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street. Then perhaps it’s not a stretch to say that these young grads will not want to play a role in the continuing erosion of the Artist P&L and musical creativity in our society.

Let me leave you with this thought. What value does music create in your life? Think about that first piano recital where your daughter was so excited to play Beethoven’s “Moonlight Sonata”; or that hard fought comeback to competitive gymnastics performing the floor routine of your life to Bill Conti’s “Theme From Rocky”; or the incredible emotion flowing at the debut reunion performance, twenty three years in the making, of a legendary and iconic Rock & Roll band! What about the pure joy and hope you feel when your very special and brilliant 55 year old brother writes his first set of lyrics to the “Twelve Days of Christmas” and then sings them to his girlfriend! Yes! “…take me down to the Paradise City.. yeah yeahah!” For those of us who cannot possibly imagine a world without music to fill our souls, with pure unbridled emotion and purpose that inspires us every day, our message is simple. We’re on it and we’re in it for the Artist! Count on it.

 “Ten years ago they sent a machine from the future, “You Could Be Mine”