The Long Game

Thank you to Slash and Betty White for reminding us to be cool and play the long game!

By now everyone has seen last week’s earnings highlights.  The one that really caught my attention read “Goldman Pays Up for Talent, Sending Profits Down”.  Huh?  In 2021, Goldman reported record net earnings of $21.6 billion, more than double 2020 results of $9.5 billion, and more than double results in recent history, $8.5 billion in 2019, and $10.5 billion in 2018. 

JP Morgan was hit with a similar headline, “Wells Fargo Up, JP Morgan Down”.  This on 2021 net earnings of $48.3 billion, which soared 66% to 2020 results.  

These onerous headlines were referring to quarterly changes.  Goldman Q4 net earnings of $3.9 billion fell (27%) to Q3, and (13%) year over year.  JP Morgan Q4 results of $10.4 billion fell (11%) to Q3 and (14%) year over year.  This is important because long term capital appreciation demands a long term growth strategy.  The problem is short-termism.  CEO’s are under enormous pressure to deliver strong quarterly earnings reports and to distribute wealth rather than reinvest.  Investors responded this time by sending shares of Goldman and JP Morgan down.  

In a 2015 article I wrote, McKinsey’s Dominic Barton, BlackRock’s Laurence Fink, and Rodel CEO Bill Budinger intensified the debate on the short term approach, challenging leaders to play the long game.

I think Jamie Dimon got it right in his response to investors, “We will be competitive in  pay.  If that squeezes margins a little bit for shareholders, so be it.”  Further, Mr. Dimon asserted that JP Morgan wouldn’t meet its longer-term target returns this year and maybe next year.  I’d say that qualifies as playing the long game, as Laurence Fink’s 2015 letter to Fortune 500 CEOs urged.

While Wells Fargo is cutting costs, other banks with bigger Wall Street operations reported higher expenses, largely because investment banking and trading results have soared, with the demand for talent high.  It has taken more than ten years for global markets volume to rebound since the near collapse of the world financial system in 2008 and 2009.  This is welcome news not only for an industry forever changed by these events, but for New York City and State tax coffers.  This will also help small business in the New York metro area, COVID notwithstanding, in a city metropolis plagued by increasing income disparity.

What else are the big banks investing in?  The answer is technology.  Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) factor squarely in post trade settlement.  Ongoing transformation in cloud operations, interconnection, communication services, payments, and enhanced data security are also garnering noteworthy investment.  

Technology spend worldwide is projected to grow 5.5% in 2022 to $4.5 trillion.  This follows a robust level of investment in 2021.  As one example, investments in European tech firms soared to $93.3 billion last year, a record, and a 142% increase over the year before, according to CB Insights. 

U.S. Banks are very focused on this.  JP Morgan has instituted a technology in residence program and recruited McKinsey Partner Neha Gargi as their new Head of Global Technology Strategy. 

Goldman is leaning forward as well with deep talent search.  In Spring 2021, they reached out to me, having identified my trading technology FP&A background.  I interviewed with a veteran new hire leading their technology efforts in their Americas Operations group.  This person had an engineering and product background outside capital markets, most recently within the APAC region.  I didn’t land the role but it really caught my attention, revealing the intensity of their strategic focus.

Where is this all leading?  Utilizing the long game, I’m bullish on America and believe we can transform the U.S. economy and regain the top spot from China.  But we need to get going on this.  

In some related good news, mountains have moved on Capitol Hill with groundbreaking bipartisan support in the U.S. Senate, with passage of the $250 billion U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, also known as the Endless Frontier Act.  This week the U.S. House takes up this effort, largely seen as a critical and effective means to counter China’s technological ambitions. 

So let’s get moving!  What are your thoughts on this?  I’d love to hear!

As always I’m reminded that nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain.  Hmm, sounds like song lyrics. Enjoy!

Guns N’ Roses November Rain

Feature Photo courtesy of the IMGUR platform and the L.A. Zoo, on whose Board Slash sits, along with Betty White when she was still with us.

Please note Addendum links below to supporting articles.

Goldman Sachs Sees Profits Slips

Wells Fargo Up, JP Morgan Down

Cynthia 2015 Article Long Term Capital Appreciation  

Banks like JP Morgan: Inflation Is A Double Edged Sword

Gartner projecting $4.5 trillion Tech Spend

European Tech Scene

JP Morgan Technology In Residence

JP Morgan hires new Head of Global Technology Strategy

Bipartisan Senate Passes Bill To Boost China Competitiveness

U.S. House Takes Up China Competitiveness Bill

Technology To The Top!

Technology has certainly transformed our lives, but can you take it to the top? As Mick Jagger and Keith Richards penned in the sleeper ballad “Tops” from the Rolling Stones 1981 “Tattoo You” album, “… I’ll make you a star…I’ll be your partner, show you the steps, with me behind you, you’ll taste the sweet wine of success…” Well, if you work in Capital Markets, the sweet wine of P&L success today depends upon innovation, collaboration, efficiency, and government regulation. Innovation ideally adds compelling functionality. Collaboration can mitigate risk and enhance solutions. The two combined have the potential to increase efficiency. Then there’s government regulation, a complex nut to crack that certainly requires both innovation and collaboration for all to succeed.  

In the electronic trading industry, innovation has lowered trading costs for the investing consumer; has made the markets more efficient and transparent; and has shifted real estate from exchange floors to fortressed data centers. Exchanges, data center providers, and electronic trading support firms collaborate to support the trading needs of large sellside banks, buyside asset managers & hedge funds, and new proprietary trading firms spun off from sellside banks in the first round of Dodd Frank reform. As the next wave of Dodd Frank reform implementation is upon us, specifically risk compliance, technology innovation will again play a key role in managing the P&L of all the firms on this food chain. The bottom line? Adding another layer of cost to the already razor thin margins that exist today, simply demands a solution!

A promising new technology that likely holds a piece of the long term solution for the trading P&L is Block Chain technology. A highly secure and encrypted database architecture that creates a distributed ledger, one set of records created at the beginning of the trade life cycle where all market participants have open access to the same copy, the Block Chain contains a high degree of trust, and can ultimately lead to more efficient and transparent same day settlement, and of course lower operational cost. The technology has the ability to process both trading settlement and loan transactions and there are implications for Big Data as well, solving the dilemma of “garbage in, garbage out”. Blythe Masters, CEO of Digital Assets Holding, whose firm has received a Series A $60 million investment led by JP Morgan, to develop this disruptive technology, maintains ‘These systems will tackle settlement latency in mainstream financial markets and will change the way our financial markets operate.’ Blythe Masters on Blockchain.  See more on JP Morgan Blockchain testing.  

Of course this is a huge undertaking, the transformation of multi asset class transaction settlement across a complex and fragmented global market, so it will not happen overnight. At the same time though, as the global capital markets’ P&L has gone through transformative change since the near collapse in 2008, financial institutions are under incredible pressure to improve margins. One way or the other, they will. Block chain could be one avenue to help achieve this goal. Interestingly, JP Morgan has been testing the technology over the past year and plans for live “applications” later in 2016. Stay tuned.

As a veteran analyst, passionate about financial analysis driving P&L growth, and always determined to increase operational efficiency in support of compelling analytics, this subject matter really speaks to my heart! In addition to the obvious operational “value add” Block Chain technology can add in transaction settlement, I see great potential for all of us who have labored over the years in calculating trading p&l’s and discerning key business trends.

Further, as a passionate Rock&Roll fan, I am completely delighted at the intersection with the music world, a subject I touched upon briefly in my September 2015 post “The Musical Artist P&L in Today’s Digital Streaming World”! A very strong potential use case for Block Chain technology is in the recorded music industry. Similar to Capital Markets, the Artist P&L has been transformed dramatically by technology in an evolving and fragmented digital market. Professional Music Advocacy groups, including the newly created Grammy Creator’s Alliance, have been out in force on Capitol Hill urging legislators to adopt new legislation and create mechanisms, using technology, to help Artists earn well deserved and transparent royalties for the music they create, in essence “to make a living”, and to promote and support an enduring legacy of musical creativity. Referencing the U.S. Copyright Office’s “Copyright and the Music Marketplace Report” released early in 2015, one of the recommendations reads “Encouraging the private sector to create a comprehensive database of music-rights ownership information with unique universal identifiers and messaging standards.”

On a lighter note, to round out the Technology to the Top discussion, how would you like to be on Jimmy Kimmel Live? You can be, using new video wall technology that Cisco has built exclusively for the show! Learn more here. Simply sign up at the website and hopefully you will receive an email from a very nice producer named Jamie. You will be sent a link to download the “Cisco Jabber” to schedule a live test with the production team, to make sure you have a solid internet connection. For wireless users, Verizon Fios works very well. Also, lighting is very important. You will then have a chat with the producer, so he can get a sense of your background. If the test is a go, you will then be placed on the priority list to appear on the show, when a particular subject pertinent to your background, is set to air. I am told you will then do a second test before appearing the following night. Very exciting and what a brilliant use of technology to engage the entertainment audience! Jimmy Kimmel Wall of America segment.

So to wrap up in signature concert footage style, I leave you with this incredible live 1993 Argentina performance, a technically brilliant & masterful combination of emotion filled voice & electric guitar by two Rock legends, amid a creative backdrop of carefully choreographed colors, lights, and video sequences. Enjoy!